Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict: An Overview
The Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the longest and most complex territorial disputes in the post-Soviet world. What began as a political disagreement rooted in Soviet-era borders gradually turned into a series of wars, ceasefires, mass displacement, and fragile peace efforts that continue to shape the South Caucasus today.
Historical And Political Context
From imperial legacies and ethnic tensions to modern warfare and diplomatic negotiations, this conflict has affected millions of lives and altered regional power dynamics.
Scope And Purpose Of This Article
This article traces the full journey of the dispute — from its historical origins to the latest peace initiatives — offering a clear and human-centred overview of how a “frozen conflict” evolved into one of the most decisive geopolitical shifts of the 21st century.
Post-Ceasefire Tensions (1994–2020)
Although the 1994 ceasefire brought an end to full-scale fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it did not bring real peace. Instead, the conflict entered a long phase of uneasy calm, often described as a “frozen conflict.” Armenian forces remained in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and several surrounding districts, even though the area was internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.
Over the next two decades, tensions never truly disappeared. Soldiers from both sides were stationed along heavily militarised borders, and sporadic clashes became routine. These included sniper fire, artillery exchanges, and occasional deadly skirmishes. Serious flare-ups occurred in 2008, 2010, 2014, and especially in 2016, when hundreds were killed in what was the worst violence since the ceasefire.
- Sniper fire and border shootings
- Artillery exchanges
- Localized military skirmishes
Peace talks continued under international mediation, mainly through the OSCE Minsk Group, but they failed to produce a lasting political solution. Both countries invested heavily in their militaries, preparing for the possibility that war could resume at any time. By 2020, it was clear that the ceasefire had only delayed, not resolved, the conflict.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)
In September 2020, decades of tension finally exploded into a new and intense war. This time, the fighting was far more destructive and technologically advanced than before. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey and using modern weapons such as combat drones and precision missiles, launched a large-scale offensive.
Within six weeks, Azerbaijan regained control over large areas of territory it had lost in the 1990s. One of the most symbolic victories was the capture of Shusha, a strategically and culturally important city.
The human cost was enormous. Thousands of soldiers and civilians were killed or injured, and many families were forced to flee their homes. The war ended in November 2020 with a ceasefire brokered by Russia. Under this deal, Armenian forces withdrew from most remaining territories, and Russian peacekeepers were deployed to maintain security in parts of the region.
Although the fighting stopped, the deeper political issues remained unresolved.
The 2023 Azerbaijani Offensive and the Mass Exodus
After 2020, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh remained unstable. In 2022 and 2023, Azerbaijan effectively blocked the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting the region to Armenia. This caused severe shortages of food, medicine, and fuel for the Armenian population.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a short but decisive military operation. Armenian forces quickly collapsed, and the de facto government of Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to dissolve itself.
What followed was one of the most dramatic population movements in the region’s modern history. More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians — nearly the entire population — fled to Armenia within days, fearing persecution and loss of security. Entire towns were emptied almost overnight.
This exodus effectively ended Nagorno-Karabakh’s existence as an Armenian-governed entity and placed the region fully under Azerbaijani control for the first time since the early 1990s.
Toward Peace: Agreements and Challenges (2025–2026)
With Nagorno-Karabakh no longer disputed on the ground, both countries finally found space for serious diplomacy. In 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on the text of a peace treaty that aimed to formally end nearly four decades of conflict.
The agreement includes commitments to:
- Respect each other’s territorial integrity
- Normalize diplomatic relations
- Open transport and trade routes
However, the treaty has not yet been fully signed or implemented. Azerbaijan has demanded constitutional changes in Armenia, while Armenia seeks stronger guarantees for security and sovereignty.
At the same time, international actors — especially the United States — are promoting economic cooperation projects such as the TRIPP initiative, which would open new transit corridors and energy links across the region, including routes connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.
These projects are seen as tools to make peace economically beneficial for both sides.
Current Status and Outlook
As of 2026, a return to full-scale war appears unlikely. Both governments are under strong international pressure to maintain stability, and the military balance now clearly favours Azerbaijan.
However, the peace remains fragile. Sensitive issues such as:
- Border demarcation
- Constitutional reforms
- Refugee rehabilitation
- Regional power politics
Continue to shape relations.
The Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict has moved from open warfare to forced displacement and now to cautious diplomacy. While the guns have largely fallen silent, true reconciliation is still a work in progress, and the legacy of decades of conflict will continue to influence the South Caucasus for years to come.
Origins in Empire and Soviet Policy
The roots of the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict lie deep in the complex history of the South Caucasus, a strategically vital region located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. For centuries, this region was contested by major empires, including the Persian, Ottoman, and Russian empires. Each power reshaped borders, populations, and loyalties, creating a mosaic of ethnic and religious communities with overlapping territorial claims.
In the early 19th century, following a series of Russo-Persian wars, the Russian Empire formally incorporated much of the South Caucasus, including Nagorno-Karabakh. Under Russian rule, Armenian populations increased in certain areas due to migration encouraged by imperial policies, while Muslim (later Azerbaijani) communities remained dominant in others. This demographic intermixing laid the groundwork for future disputes.
After the Bolshevik Revolution and the creation of the Soviet Union, Moscow faced the challenge of managing competing nationalisms across its vast territory. In 1923, Soviet authorities created the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, even though Armenians made up around 90% of its population at the time. This decision was largely political: the Kremlin sought to balance Armenian and Azerbaijani interests while maintaining centralized control and preventing either republic from becoming too powerful.
Although autonomy was granted on paper, in practice Nagorno-Karabakh remained economically dependent on Baku, and Armenian cultural and political aspirations were tightly restricted. Over decades, Armenians in the region complained of discrimination, underdevelopment, and cultural suppression, while Azerbaijan viewed the enclave as an inseparable part of its territorial integrity. Thus, Soviet border engineering effectively froze a conflict rather than resolving it.
Late Soviet Unrest (Late 1980s–1991)
As the Soviet Union entered a period of decline in the 1980s under Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring), long-suppressed grievances resurfaced across many republics. In Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians saw a historic opportunity to revisit the issue of political status.
In February 1988, the regional legislature of Nagorno-Karabakh formally voted to request transfer from Azerbaijan to Armenia. This move was supported by massive demonstrations in Yerevan but sparked outrage in Azerbaijan, where it was perceived as a direct threat to national sovereignty.
What followed was a rapid escalation of ethnic tensions. Pogroms and retaliatory violence broke out, most notably in the Azerbaijani city of Sumgait and later in Baku, as well as in Armenian towns. Thousands of people were forced to flee their homes. By the end of the Soviet period, nearly all Armenians had left Azerbaijan and most Azerbaijanis had left Armenia, creating two increasingly homogeneous societies shaped by trauma and resentment.
The Soviet government attempted to impose order, but its authority was collapsing. When the USSR formally dissolved in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan emerged as independent states — inheriting not only borders, but an unresolved and now militarized territorial dispute.
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994)
The political crisis soon transformed into a full-scale war. Between 1988 and 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought one of the bloodiest conflicts to emerge from the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, supported by Armenia and former Soviet military resources, gradually gained the upper hand. Azerbaijani forces, weakened by internal political instability and lack of unified command, struggled to maintain control. By 1994, Armenian-aligned forces had not only secured most of Nagorno-Karabakh but also occupied seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts, creating a land corridor connecting the enclave to Armenia.
The Human Cost Was Severe
- Around 30,000 people were killed.
- Over one million civilians were displaced, the majority being Azerbaijanis.
- Entire towns and villages were destroyed or depopulated.
A Russian-brokered ceasefire in May 1994 ended large-scale fighting but did not produce a peace treaty. Instead, it resulted in a “frozen conflict” — a situation in which Armenia controlled territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, while Nagorno-Karabakh functioned as a de facto independent Armenian state with no international recognition.
This unresolved outcome entrenched hostility on both sides and ensured that the conflict remained a central feature of regional geopolitics for decades to come.
Conclusion: A Conflict That Redefined a Region
The Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is not just a story of borders and battles, but a deeply human tragedy shaped by history, politics, and unresolved grievances. What began as a dispute created by imperial legacies and Soviet-era decisions eventually turned into decades of war, displacement, and fragile ceasefires that transformed the lives of millions.
Historical Impact And Key Phases
From the first war in the early 1990s to the decisive military shifts of 2020 and the mass exodus of Armenians in 2023, the conflict has repeatedly shown how frozen disputes can suddenly become violent again. While Azerbaijan has now regained full territorial control, Armenia continues to deal with the long-term social and political consequences of defeat and displacement.
- First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994)
- Decades of frozen conflict (1994–2020)
- Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)
- Mass exodus and territorial change (2023)
Shift Toward Peace And Cooperation
As both countries move toward a formal peace agreement, the focus is slowly shifting from military rivalry to economic cooperation and regional connectivity. Projects involving trade routes, energy links, and diplomatic normalization offer hope that stability in the South Caucasus can be built on shared interests rather than historical hostility.
| Area Of Focus | Potential Impact |
|---|---|
| Trade Routes | Improved regional commerce and integration |
| Energy Links | Economic interdependence and stability |
| Diplomatic Normalization | Reduced tensions and long-term cooperation |
Future Outlook And Challenges
However, true peace will depend not only on treaties, but on trust, reconciliation, and respect for human security. The legacy of the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict will continue to shape regional politics for years to come, but the current moment also presents a rare opportunity: to finally replace decades of fear and confrontation with dialogue, development, and a sustainable peace for future generations.
End Notes:
- Nagorno-Karabakh | Conflicts, Map, Country, & People – https://www.britannica.com/place/Nagorno-Karabakh
- Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
- Tensions Between Armenia and Azerbaijan – https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict
- 2014 Armenian–Azerbaijani clashes – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Armenian%E2%80%93Azerbaijani_clashes
- Nagorno-Karabakh Region, Conflict, Conflict Timeline, News – https://vajiramandravi.com/current-affairs/nagorno-karabakh-region/
- Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict – https://www.clearias.com/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/
- Armenia – Azerbaijan Peace Agreement – https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-agreement
- Armenia and Azerbaijan to merge energy systems as part of Trump-backed project – https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/armenia-azerbaijan-merge-energy-systems-part-trump-backed-project-armenian-pm-2026-01-21/
- Armenian intelligence says war with Azerbaijan highly unlikely in 2026 – https://oc-media.org/armenian-intelligence-says-war-with-azerbaijan-highly-unlikely-in-2026/
